Every year, the CREB Forecast provides one of the most trusted, data-driven outlooks on Calgary’s housing market and broader economy. With shifting economic conditions, evolving migration patterns, and growing housing supply, the 2026 forecast offers valuable insight into what lies ahead.

Our very own Julie Nasiri attended the CREB Forecast in person, gathering these insights firsthand so we can translate the data into meaningful guidance for our clients — whether you’re buying, selling, or planning your next move.

From Seller’s Market to Balance

According to the CREB Forecast, 2025 marked a turning point for Calgary’s housing market. The city transitioned away from strong seller-favoured conditions toward a more balanced environment as housing supply increased across new homes, resale listings, and rental properties.

At the same time, demand returned to more typical levels. Slower migration was a key factor, particularly after several years of exceptionally strong population growth. This combination helped relieve pressure on prices, most notably in the apartment and row-style home segments, which saw the largest increase in inventory compared to long-term norms.

Housing Supply and Market Conditions in 2026

Looking ahead, the CREB Forecast expects elevated supply levels to persist in 2026, especially for higher-density housing. Record-high housing starts in 2025 are now being completed and added to the market, increasing options for buyers and renters alike.

With inventory rising, new construction activity is expected to slow this year, helping supply growth ease toward the end of 2026 and into 2027. Meanwhile, past population gains and employment growth are expected to keep sales in line with long-term averages, though no significant increase in demand is anticipated.

The result is balanced to buyer-leaning market conditions across much of the city, depending on property type.

Sales and Pricing Outlook

The CREB Forecast notes that elevated supply across resale, new, and rental markets will lengthen absorption times, meaning it will take longer for current inventory to be absorbed.

• Apartments and row-style homes are expected to remain under price pressure due to excess supply

• Detached and semi-detached homes are forecast to see more stable pricing

• Overall residential prices are expected to ease slightly, largely influenced by softness in higher-density segments

While recent agreements between the provincial and federal governments regarding pipeline development offer long-term upside for Calgary, the forecast indicates these benefits are unlikely to materially impact the housing market in 2026.

Forecast Risks: What Could Change the Outlook

The CREB Forecast also outlines key upside and downside risks that could influence market performance.

Upside Risk
A shifting stance by the federal government around regulatory barriers impacting the energy sector could support stronger-than-expected investment activity. If investment accelerates sooner than anticipated, this could lead to increased job growth and stronger migration into Alberta, helping absorb housing supply more quickly and supporting higher price levels.

Downside Risk
On the other hand, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and potential renegotiation of the CUSMA agreement continues to pose downside risk. Slower global growth and increased oil supply are expected to weigh on energy prices in 2026, limiting growth in energy investment. Should oil prices fall further than expected, energy investment — and broader economic momentum — could slow.

Economic Conditions in Calgary and Alberta

The broader economy performed better than expected in 2025, though impacts varied across Canada. Resource-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan led national growth, a trend expected to continue over the next two years.

That said, while Alberta has significant upside potential tied to reduced regulatory pressures, the CREB Forecast does not expect rising energy investment to meaningfully impact the economy in 2026 due to weaker energy prices.

In the meantime, Alberta continues to benefit from diversification, with investment flowing into petrochemicals, hydrogen, food processing, technology, critical minerals, and aviation.

Although Calgary remains relatively affordable compared to other major cities, migration is expected to slow as unemployment rates remain elevated. With inflation returning to target levels, the Bank of Canada is expected to be done cutting rates in 2026, but lingering cost-of-living pressures will continue to affect consumers.

Employment Trends

Employment growth in Calgary exceeded expectations in 2025, averaging four per cent growth. While job losses occurred in sectors such as accommodation and food services, manufacturing, and business services, strong gains were seen in healthcare and social assistance.

Professional and white-collar job growth also outperformed expectations. However, unemployment remained elevated as rapid labour force growth outpaced job creation.

In 2026, employment growth is expected to slow. Job losses in public administration and manufacturing may offset gains in other sectors, keeping unemployment rates elevated. While previous employment gains should support typical levels of housing demand, limited job growth is expected to prevent further increases in sales activity.

Population and Migration Outlook

Strong population growth from 2022 to 2024 played a major role in Calgary’s recent housing supply challenges. However, estimates from 2025 indicate a larger-than-expected decline in migration.

As we move into 2026, migration levels are expected to ease further as fewer international migrants are admitted and more temporary residents leave the country. Interprovincial migration is also expected to slow due to weaker employment growth and higher unemployment rates.

Lower migration, combined with rising housing supply, is expected to weigh on the housing market in 2026. That said, this is not a return to pre-pandemic conditions where Alberta experienced net outflows. Instead, demand is normalizing back to long-term trends.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

The key takeaway from the CREB Forecast is that Calgary’s real estate market is stabilizing. Buyers are gaining choice and leverage, sellers must be strategic with pricing and presentation, and investors need to be selective by property type and location.

Thanks to Julie Nasiri’s attendance at the CREB Forecast, we’re staying informed, proactive, and prepared to help our clients navigate this next phase of the market with confidence.

If you’d like to understand how these trends apply to your specific goals, we’re always here to talk it through.

Click here to read the full CREB® 2026 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.